What Happened in The Malibu Real Estate Market The First Half of 2019?
The real estate market has steady pretty consistent with the first quarter of 2019. Both on the land side and ocean side, we have had half the amount of sales, half of the sales volume compared to 2018 but the actual sales show a different story. The average price per foot is up from $2,900’s to $3,250 on the beach side and $950s to $1,100’s on the land side. The mean sale price has dropped a bit on the beach side to mid $8 million range from low $9 million range while the Land Side is nearly the same at $3.350 million range. People have had different opinions on where the market will go from here; will it go down because inventory is at a 30% decline from mid 250 homes to now 190 homes on the market. They believe if the inventory rises the demand will not grow and people will have to adjust their price to compete, lowering the prices. I have a different opinion than this. I believe this is not the case, I believe there has been uncertainty in the market and the stock market had heavily influenced the volume of sales. If you look back to 2017, our real estate market has had a significant correlation with the stock market. In 2017 our average sales volume was around $50 million per month on the land side and the stock market was steadily rising over 500 points that year. In 2018 we started to see more volatility in both sales volume and the stock market. In February the stock market took a 250 pt drop in one month and subsequently we only had $8 million in sales volume at that time. There was a quick rebound during this time and the sales volume rose again to the normal $40 million to $50 million per month. This was until the stock market dropped over 600 points by the end of December. During those months and into the new year we can see a steady decline in sales volume down to an average of under $25 million (of course the fire had a huge affect in November but this is over 10 month period only two month had over $25 million in sales). This year the stock market had come back up by April and we had the one month this year with sales above $25 million volume but immediately after we saw another 200 pt drop by end of May and June had nearly lowest sales volume of the year. The market rebounded back to an all time by the end of June and we do not foresee another downturn. The market is looking more stable and as long as they’re no extreme trade wars, the economy should stabilize at this point and people are able to take their money and leverage into real estate knowing they are not at a loss or the LTV( Loan-To-Value) will be at risk. I believe the inventory will stay low and with the increase of wealth in the marketplace, we will see prices rise in the second half of 2019.